CPEC: The Flagship enterprise of OBOR

Economic interests, of countries, shape International Politics and it is these interests/concerns, which bring countries together, form alliances or create rift among nations. At the core of all alliances and conflicts, it is these economic interests/concerns, which countries aim to protect and further at all costs. Therefore, it is imperative to study developments, in the realm of global Realpolitik, from the lens of economics. The One Belt One Road (OBOR) project of China, hence, must be understood from economic perspective & not just from strategic perspective. 

The political-economic changes in United States and Europe, in the wake of 2007 Recession, dubbed as The Great Recession, compelled China to take grand initiatives, of economic nature. Apart from changes in global economic landscape (gradual transformation of large liberal economies into closed economies), the apprehension pertaining to the political-economic consequences of possible dwindle in the pace of China's economic growth, pushed the country to take these bold economic measures and conceive/implement ambitious projects such as OBOR.

The enterprise, OBOR, is a massive enterprise, on which China intends to invest around $800 billion. The sub-enterprise, of this ambitious initiative is China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). For this project (CPEC), China initially committed $45 billion; however, later the sum was increased to $65 billion. Several infrastructure and power projects constitute CPEC, which would not only increase the economic potential of Pakistan, but would also realize the objective of regional connectivity, increasing trade between the East and West Asia. The process will not only strengthen existing markets, as per projections, but will also yield new markets.

For Pakistan, the most evident benefit, in the immediate short-run, will be the development of infrastructure, which will radically expand its economic capacity and it will augment its economic potential. In the short-run the multiplier effect will increase commerce related activities and general employment level, at least in theory. However, the skeptics are somewhat uncertain of these alleged reimbursements and their doubts are backed by evidence and sound reasoning.

Foreign Direct Investment is considered engine of growth and its spillovers improve the quality of economy, examples are China and India. However, FDI works when monetary system and policies are effective. Pakistan’s monetary system and its monetary policies are far from effective. Not only are the high interest rates a problem, but also the prevailing perception regarding interest, shaped by Islamic Ideology.  Therefore, some economists are of the view that the multiplier effect, of this huge investment, would be far less in magnitude/strength than what is being projected.

Another challenge pertains to the perception regarding the nature and objectives of CPEC. For instance, India, which is regional power and third largest economy of the world, in terms of PPP, considers CPEC an enterprise of strategic nature, which not only has economic objectives, but also military objectives. Indian strategists assert that Gwader port is being built for military purposes and through that deep port, China intends to increase its influence in Indian/Arabian Ocean. The argument, of Indian politicians-diplomats-strategists, is that if CPEC is entirely an economic project, why Bin Qasim port has not been considered, which is a fully developed port and the route, from Western China to Indian Sea through Bin Qasim port, is more secure?

These apprehensions, of Pakistan’s neighbor (India) and major economic/military power of region, is not only making this flagship project of OBOR controversial, but it is also polarizing the entire region, as India is employing its financial and diplomatic resources to impede the progress on CPEC enterprise.

To make this enterprise, worth $65 billion, a success, it is imperative for Pakistan to force evolution on its economic institutions and improve its economic policies. Without an effective and relevant monetary policy, which facilitates FDI & increases it multiplier effect, CPEC would not be able to produce the projected results. In addition, it is also imperative to allay reservations of India, regarding the nature of project and its objectives. Some experts are of the view that India’s problem with CPEC is far more complex and not just limited to Gwadar port; Gilgit Baltistan. Whatever, might be the concerns, the success of the project, as connectivity hub, is hard to come by, if India is not part of it. If India becomes part of it, Pakistan’s relevance for India will increase and it will allow two countries to address/resolve different issues, such as water and terrorism.  In addition it will give more authenticity to the entire economic scheme, increasing its chances of success. 

Afghanistan’s War Economy

After 16 years of long, hard and bloody war, during which United States disproportionately used both military and monetary resources to attain stability, Afghanistan is far from stable. The irrational use of resources, which include United States and NATO’s war-machines, failed to produce the desired results; in fact, this insensible and un-methodical use of resources, especially by Bush Administration, further aggravated an already bleak situation.

The disappointment, from the failures, is so great that for last five years the focus, of United States and its Allies, is on maintaining status quo and for that different instruments and resources have been employed. One of the instruments, which is devised to realize said objective, is to engage Taliban through Pakistan so that United States can leave Afghanistan with a system of some sort that can produce results, no matter how trivial these results are. 

Despite all the efforts and extravagant spending of resources, United States and its Allies are failing to curb ever-expanding presence of Taliban. Kabul is losing more territory, every year, to those groups, which question the legitimacy of Kabul government and contest, in various manners, the writ of Kabul. In 2016, Kabul has lost 15% of its territory to the Taliban and currently it only controls 56% of Afghanistan’s total territory.

To understand why United States is failing perpetually in realizing its objective, of bringing stability in Afghanistan so that it could leave without any serious blemish, it is imperative to understand the political-economic structure of Afghanistan.

Located in one of the most strategically relevant regions in the world, the land locked Afghanistan has only witnessed violence and destruction since the Soviet invasion in 1979. As the presence of Soviet Union prolonged, the violence augmented and war intensified. This severely damaged its economy and yielded a perfect environment for the emergence and sustenance of militant groups. United States and Soviet Union’s contribution to war, in form of weapons and money that they were providing to armed groups to protect strategic & tactical interests, gave birth to war economy. Different groups, such as Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin, emerged that understood that confrontation/violence was indispensable to ascertain their existence. Over the years this war-economy grew so large that it substituted conventional economy of Afghanistan, which had been impaired to the point of insignificance by perpetual conflict and chaos.

The strategy, of using weapons and money to meet immediate objectives, was opted yet again by United States, when it invaded Afghanistan in 2001. It relied on Northern Alliance to deliver the goods and later contrived a government, which was not only comprised of war-lords, who were occasionally drug-smugglers, but also represented minority. These war-lords, on which United States too much rely, to meet strategic needs & objectives, derive their power from American presence and money United States spends to maintain status quo, which is why prolonged American presence is desired. These political-militant groups, which are the beneficiaries of the war, recognize that once United States leaves Afghanistan, its commitment to it and its monetary assistance to the country, in form of aid and loans, will gradually die. As per official statistics, around $110 billion has been spent, since 2002, to rebuild Afghanistan and major portion of this US Aid has either been wasted or stolen.

Groups, like Taliban and ISIS (later has considerable presence in the eastern region of the country) are incidental products of prolonged conflict in Afghanistan; thus, it is natural that these groups entirely depend on this alternative economy for their existence. Therefore, any fluctuations in this economy directly impact the capacity and efficiency of these groups.  

What’s the remedy??? In the short-run, Afghanistan’s war-economy must be dented. The more impaired it is, more weak are these armed factions/groups that thrive on it. This will reduce their effectiveness, which will facilitate in reaching normalcy in war-torn country. It must also be acknowledged that different groups benefit differently from the economic system and that is why the design, to be devised to impair this economy, must be comprehensive. 

The process shall start by improving mechanisms that have been developed to provide monetary assistance to Kabul. The aid to be provided, in form of loans and funds, should be objective-oriented and checks and balances must be introduced to ensure that neither it gets wasted nor it gets stolen. 

Afghanistan’s private sector should be facilitated and more economic/corporate opportunities should be produced so that private sector could expand and play its part in the revival of conventional economy. Currently the emphasis of Afghan government is on the broad and bold use of fiscal instrument to meet socio-economic goals, which has made political-economic situation more perplexing as it has increased corruption at various tiers of Afghan government/state-machinery. This wide-spread corruption has drastically slowed the pace of economic revival; in fact, corruption has made Afghanistan’s war economy far robust than what it was before 2002 American invasion.

In the long-run the conventional economy must substitute war-economy of Afghanistan, which will require stability, growth of private sector, more investment (domestic and foreign) and evolution of state institutions to the level where they could deliver their constitutional obligations effectively. If the situation, in Afghanistan, is allowed to continue, the country will remain unstable and insecure for a very long period, which implies that conventional economy would not resuscitate for many more decades.  

Changing Political Perceptions in US

As the economic realities change, so do the social and political realities. It is a natural process, which is imperative for the social-political-economic evolution. Human civilization has evolved, over the time, because of the gradual progress, which is influenced by countless watersheds. These watersheds not only provided direction to the civilization development, but also yielded new notions, which forced social alterations. The example is of Industrial Revolution, of 17th century, which was not just an economic revolution, but also had political-social ramifications.
In the recent years, we have witnessed fundamental modifications in classical political-economic models; the inherent contradictions, of Capitalism, facilitated its evolution and in case of authoritarian political-economic model (socialist economic models), substitution of the entire system, by more liberal-economic system.
US, which was once considered the emphatic supporter, of Capitalism, introduced such changes, which altered the system to the point, where it only remotely resembled the previous economic model. These modifications were not the consequence of  industrial technological advancements or political progression, but rather they were the result of economic meltdown, because of Great Depression, which had badly jolted the capitalist realm.
Once again, economic challenges are yielding new political-economic percepts, which apparently contradicts with previous political-economic notions that prevailed only two or three decades ago. It is imperative to mention that most of the economic challenges are born from imprudent economic and trade policies, which have been influenced/tempered by large corporations that have enormous and evident political influence.

The statistics (unemployment data on the right) provide valuable information, regarding unemployment; however these statistics are not enough to understand economic challenges, of US, immediate and long-term. As per stats, the unemployment rate, in US, augmented dramatically, in the year 2008, but because of the expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, US is able to partially recover. However, according to recent evidence (economic data) it is plain that US economy has not fully recovered (current GDP growth rate is below average growth rate of 3.24%).

For any economy the two core objectives are high employment and economic growth. However, US economy is failing to realize these objectives dues to de-industrialization (flight of capital), which is constructing new political-economic perceptions and realities. In addition, rise in wages, in US, has stalled because corporations are threatening to leave US, for Mexico, China or Vietnam, as cost of production, in these countries, is extremely low.

Because of these discussed challenges, the political-economic perceptions, in US, are evolving, which would either give birth to new scenarios or would shape the existing realities. Already the establishment politicians, like Hillary Clinton, are forced to amend their positions on economic and trade policies. This signifies the change occurring, within US. However, it is to be seen that how much these perspectives have changed, because of economic contradictions and challenges. The rise of Bernie Sanders suggest, very strongly, that establishment economics and politics are becoming irrelevant and sooner or later, the system, structured and shaped by establishment political-economic strategies and policies, would implode. However, it is hard to forecast whether would it be a gradual collapse or sudden implosion?

Pakistan’s Cinema, still very alien to technology

 The roots of the Pakistan cinema can be traced back to the pre-partition era. Even before the creation of Pakistan, Lahore was the hub of “cinematic” activities. The movie Teri Yaad was the first film to be released in the newly crafted state of Jinnah, Pakistan. It was mediocre start but soon the industry developed as the investors saw it profitable business.

In the 60s decade the film making in Pakistan attained the status of Industry. It was by no mean below par than its arch rival’s film industry, Bollywood. But it started to change as the bigger industry with large resources and huge audience, financially and technologically muscled down Lollywood, the Pakistan’s film Industry.

The fragile economy and political upheavals in the 70s alienated the audience from the cinemas. The investors lost interest in once thriving industry as a consequence, financial constraints made only selected scripts possible to translate on the big screens.

The era of alienation of Pakistan cinema destroyed the whole eco-system which came to existence with the birth and development of Pakistan film industry. The limited audience had to live with the certain scripts which were reproduced again and again.

In modern times technology play its crucial part in the cinema making. Strong scripts with skillful actors fail to enthuse the audience if the technological part is not considered appropriately. In today’s world of cinema making, post production editing is the integral part. The overall innovation in technology had its significant impact on the movie making industry.

Where Pakistan remained estranged from innovation and technology in cinema making, the technological revolution completely reshaped the film Industry around the world, US in particular. The technology helped in the personification of those narratives which came to existence purely and utterly out of wild imaginations.

The narratives of Arabian Nights which mesmerized young and the old alike were brought to life on the giant screens. The fantasies related to the future, translated into movies, captivated the audience in the cinema halls. Technology paved way for the innovation and innovation gave new dimension to the movie making.

Superman, Spiderman, the Wizard of Oz and many other characters dragged out of comics to entertain the audience worldwide. The technology helped to describe the horrors of war in the most realistic way, and it all eventually helped movies to be globally recognized. 

 In 1933, Hollywood released “King Kong” which enthralled the spectators and put them in trance.  The movie proved to be the watershed for the American Film industry. It provided the foundation for the science fiction movies and technology infrastructure.

Where the surge in the technology has facilitated the human life overall with certain social complications, its effect on the movies can hardly be ignored. The last decade was the clear evidence to endorse the argument.  Movies like Lord of the Rings, Batman, and The Hobbit only able to mesmerize the audience when the visual and sound effects with other technological fundamentals harmonized with the script to captivate the audience.

      Software industry and cinema making: The technology around the world has become integral part of the cinema making. From the movie making to the post production editing, technology is playing its role not only to provide incredible cinematic results but also in cutting down the production expenses.

 District 9 sets the precedence for other movies and endorses the use of technology to cut down the production costs. The movie was made with the expense of $30 million and proved that $150 million (Avatar) is not required to deliver an action-packed CGI (Computer Graphic Imagry) extravaganza.

 The Indian Film Industry is also embracing the technology by keeping in consideration the global trends. These new technologies are not only facilitating in the Sci-fi and Adventure movies but also improving the basic ingredients of film making direction, sound and visual effects and such other small but fundamentals of cinema making.

Movies like Robot, RA-One and Krish are proving to be the trend changers in India. The high-tech constraints had limited Bollywood to the typical Bollywood formulated movies but the developed software industry in India has open new avenues. Now ideas like Koi Mil Gaya and Robot can be translated into movies to enthrall spectators and to generate revenues for the film makers.

Pakistan cluster of talent in software houses can be used to produce quality movie. The developing software industry of Pakistan can help the Lollywood to internationally recognize its movies. Lollywood should pool the talent available to create movies which target not only national but also International audience. Pakistan’s technology industry could prove to be the provision for the Pakistan films to achieve this object.

Once student of FAST, Mir Zafar Ali, the talent from Pakistan paved its ways to the Hollywood. He played a background role in the team that won the Academy Award for best visual effects in 2007, for the movie The Golden Compass. 

 The Pakistan Film industry’s saga to revive from the ashes of the past continues as the movies like Khuda Kay Liye, Bol and in 2013 Mein Hoon Shahid Afridi and WAAR has drawn audience to Pakistani cinemas. The integration of Pakistan’s Film Industry with the software industry will provide another dimension to the software houses for their commercial application. 

The blend will help in the growth of both industries, creating jobs and improved infrastructure with diversity and innovation.  It is not only going to provide the entertainment to the depressed nation but will also become the voice for the 180 million Pakistanis who have suffered a lot in last decade. The shattered economy will be aided by the Film Industry and colored description to the political and social ideas.  The new eco-system of the cinema will come to existence.

Deprived Nation, desperate to see promises Personify

The federal government paved its way to the Islamabad by offering deliverance from the impaired economy and promising peace and prosperity. During the campaign the government in center vowed to take the nation out of misery, eliminate the corruption and put an end to the epoch of violence which has been haunting Pakistan, causing the spoil of social-economic fabric of Pakistan.

The Nation desperate and uncertain took their chances and voted Pakistan Muslim League-N. In the first budget speech, new promises were made and old were repeated. After six months of the budget speech nothing has been done to fulfill the promises which now seem to have eluded the desperate nation, yet again.

At the end of 2013 we analyze what government has achieved, in these six months, and where it has failed. The unfulfilled promises and it’s cost which Pakistan had to bear. The PML-N government made array of promises to earn the trust and the support of the disappointed Pakistani nation, we will discuss few of those promises and their impact on the social-economic system of Pakistan.

Revival of Economy

The impaired economy of Pakistan is at decline since the power issue has taken its toll. The flight of capital in Pakistan has halted the economic progress which inflicted serious damages not only on the different sectors of the economy but also on social and political dimensions.

The federal government promised to provide provisions to facilitate the declining industry and agriculture. But so far nothing has been done on ground for the revival of the shattered economy. According to the stats issued by the IMF, the GDP for the year 2014 will be around 2.6%. The PML-N promised to double the GDP, but the harsh and sad reality is that the growth has declined in comparison to the last year, 3.7%. The Pakistan economy seems to be a paradox for the current government. The IMF program curtails the prospects of GDP growth, creating Stagflated economy and massive un-employment as the bi product.

Solar Panels

For the last decade Pakistan is home to darkness which haunts the citizens across the country in the “intervals”. The energy crisis of Pakistan, considered by many, “instrumental” to impair the economy. Not only that, load shedding has also inflicted psychological adverse effects on the average Pakistani.  During the campaign for the Islamabad the PML-N promised salvation from the ghost of load shedding. The much of the emphasis remained on providing un-interrupted supply of energy so that the stagnant economy may grow once again.

But the reality on the ground is grim, apart from paying the circular debt nothing substantial has been done by the government to bottle the genie of load shedding. The federal government assured to exploit all means, conventional and alternative, to end the menace of energy shortfall.

The government had the design to introduce solar panels to generate electricity. The idea was good as it holds the key to electrify even those regions which lack infrastructure for the conventional means of electricity.

The memorandum was signed by the Punjab government with the German company, AEG, for cooperation in solar energy sector under which solar energy projects of at least 50 to 100 megawatt will be set up in Punjab in 2013 and of at least 300 megawatt in 2014. But the memorandum is proving to be another photo session. The year 2014 knocking on the door and still the work on ground on the aforementioned issue is yet to be seen.

Terrorism

Energy crisis coupled with terrorism became the true challenges for the state of Pakistan. The last decade was hallmarked by the terrorism. Pakistan has lost more than 45,000 lives (civilian and security personnel) and $ 100 billion fighting the threat of terrorism.

The ambiguous policy of the government in center has complicated the security situation. It all started with the sabotage of peace talks with the outlawed Taliban as the chieftain of TTP died in the drone attack by the Americans. The situation further deteriorate from Punjab when the government of Punjab installed flawed measures to prevent unpleasant incident on the Ashura.

The sectarian violence erupted on the Ashura exposed the weaknesses of the police system not only that as the consequence of Rawalpindi’s Ashura incident sectarian violence erupted in different parts of the country. This was after an epoch Pakistan witnessed sectarian un-rest on the masses level.

Drone attacks, negotiations with the Taliban and now sectarian un-rest is getting better of the government. Diminished economy appended with terrorism and sectarian issues is the perfect recipe for the disaster.

3G and Telecom sector

  

The evolution in the telecom sector has reshaped the world, revolutionized the lives on the micro level and contributed to the economies. Social overheads have been modernized courtesy the advancement in the telecom sector. The developed world introduced these technologies give quick access to the information and to facilitate the people by the modernized services, today know as e-services.

3G technology played its part in achieving aforesaid objectives. The technology was introduced in the developed world, on the commercial, scale in 2001-2. Till then evolved form of this technology has been serving the state machinery and people around the world. The Third Generation technology has seen its pinnacle with Long Term Evolution (LTE) or 4G, which provides 300MBs/sec where the predecessor, 3G, provided 200Kbs/sec.

T

he government seemed serious to introduce the 3G technology in Pakistan. The auction of 3G spectrum was initial phase to expose Pakistan with the 3G tech but the slow progress has disappointed the interested “investment”. The auction of 3G spectrum technology not only promise huge revenues but also the improvement of state machinery by introduction of e-services.

Three million jobs for the youth

It was always the million dollar question that how the government will provide three million jobs in the economy which struggles to reach GDP growth of 2.5%. According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan, labor force of five million will be enlisted to the list “unemployed” in next four years. The narrative of tragedy and sorrow does not end here, according the IMF report, for the next 4 years Pakistan will witness slow economic growth, GDP development would be around 3%. In short, the misery of Pakistan will continue to divest the nation for next four years.

The desperate nation is waiting impatiently to witness the realization of promises made by the federal government, the key to their salvation. People of Pakistan hope that the vows were not just gimmicks by the federal government to deviously delude the suffering masses and they were indeed made by true intent. 

Note: The article has exclusively been written for the More Magazine.

Time to Rethink Energy Options

Pakistan energy crisis is not the only reason which necessitates to explore the alternative means of energy, the renewable sources also promise uninterrupted supply of power for indefinite period. The substitute mean is not only economical but also environment friendly. 

The power crisis in Pakistan is taking its toll, damaging economy, social cycles and badly effecting daily life of average citizen. The ignorance showed on the aforementioned issue by the proclaimed “prudent” governments have amplified the magnitude of the problem. The catastrophic effects of power shortages on the Industry and agriculture, which are strongly linked together, have deteriorated the economy.

Industrial sector of Pakistan is most badly hit by the power scarcity, the flight of capital from Pakistan has caused industrial shutdown which has given birth to massive unemployment and poverty. According to the recent economic stats with current GDP progress, one million people will be enlisted in the list of “unemployed” and several will be under-employed. This economic scenario is developing as the result of flawed national policies which imprudently ignored imminent energy issues.

The emphasis remained on IPPs and other temporary measures to counter the ever increasing shortfall of electricity, instead the focus should have been to integrate new sources of energy in the National Grid. The designs to counter the energy crisis exist in slides and files alone. The harsh reality is that no substantial work has been done on ground to tackle the menace of power shortfall. The genie is out the bottle and government and the institutions are showing incapacity to handle the grave situation.

Pakistan is naturally gifted country with abundance of resources, there to be exploited. For Pakistan the power generation potential is not the issue, it is lack of implementation on the policies which promise salvation from the power shortage. Millions of rupees have been spent on the surveys and project designs only to be home to dust in form of files. These reports are the research work of public and private institutions, identifying the problem and offering remedy. These research work in detail discuss Pakistan’s “conventional” and “alternative” means of power generation. These reports also identify the regions according to the potential they hold for the conventional or alternative mean of power generation.

There are range of alternative means which can address immediate and long term energy needs. Different means of substitute source of energy can be exploited in different parts of Pakistan as they hold different potential to offer.  In the developed world serious efforts are being made to switch from conventional means of energy generation, which are limited, expensive and environment damaging, to alternative means which include Solar, Geo Thermal, Wind, Micro/Macro Hydro and Tidal.

Solar photovoltaic cells (PV) convert sunlight into electricity and photovoltaic production has been increasing by an average of more than 20% each year since 2002, making it a fast-growing energy technology. Photo Voltaic is an appropriate mean to generate energy for the dispersed population and national Grid. Apart from energy generation issue, electricity infrastructure is another problem which is stunning the Pakistani growth and confining the modern agrarian and Industrial opportunities to the selected regions. . The provinces of Sindh and Baluchistan, and the Thar Desert are especially suited for the utilization of solar energy through photovoltaic. Baluchistan, the largest province of Pakistan area-wise, has a population density of just 21 persons per square kilometer, with 77% of the population living in rural areas. About 90% of the villages are yet to be electrified. Large distances with absolutely no approach roads separate these villages.

Microhydel potential of Pakistan is about 1200 MW according to the research paper issued in 2007/8 by Pakistan Council of Renewable Energy Technologies. The Microhydel potential exists in Northern regions of Pakistan as well as in the Southern plain regions. But unfortunately only 5% of the available resources have been exploited by the state. For Microhydel power plants with capacities 100 and 500 kW each, an estimated potential of 300 MW and more than 400 MW, respectively exists in Northern Area only In the incumbency of three decades no prudent steps were taken by keeping in view the future energy needs of Pakistan.

Wind Energy is an excellent mean to provide electricity, it is inexpensive and environment friendly, above all Pakistan has the potential of 20,000 MW for economically viable wind projects. “Wind speed 5–7 m/s persists in coastal regions of Sindh and Baluchistan provinces and in a number of North West frontier valleys” PCERT report.

Unfortunately no work has been on the Geo Thermal projects in Pakistan. The Pakistan has tremendous potential as it is situated on the intersection of tectonic plates of Sub-continent. The time necessitates the exploitation of all available means to achieve multiple political and economic objectives.

Biogas is another clean mean of energy generation which will not only help in the generation of energy but it will keep the rural region clean. Total biogas generation potential is of 14.25 million m3/day is available in the country. PCRET has already done considerable work on Biogas. According to the stats, biogas plants (10M3, 15M3, 20M3 gas production capacity per day) have been designed and installed in Sialkot, Narowal, Jhang and other places. As per field reports, the success rate of such plants is very high.

The combined potential of alternative means for power generation is more than100, 000 MW. These resources of energy are inexhaustible for another 1 billion years (until the Sun dies), meeting the pressing energy, around 4500 MW in the pinnacle season, and future needs. With the generation of energy on epic proportion, Pakistan can create an economic Model in which the state provides subsidized electricity to the Industry, attracting investment from all around the world. The possibility for such economic model exists as Pakistan holds the great potential to generate inexpensive energy.

The energy policy of 2013-18, Roshan Pakistan,, by the federal government has flaws as the remedy suggested in the policy again emphasizes on the IPPs (privatization of state’s power generating units) and development of power sources which use conventional means. The minister for the special assistant to the Prime Minister has claimed that each unit of wind energy will cost 16 to 17 rupee this seems to be quite irrelevant to the facts when a private company offered each unit for 15 paisa in Bangladesh.

According to the new policy all subsidies on electricity will end and the price of electricity unit will enter double digits. This is not the promised deliverance which offers the economic revival and prosperity. Polices should be made by keeping in view the relief for the masses, industrial expansion and agrarian modernization which hugely depends on the availability of un-interrupted low-price electricity.

Pakistan’s Industrial expansion and modernization of agriculture depends on power generation and means which will be exploited for the generation. Pakistan also has conventional means to fulfill the pressing and long-term energy needs but the process is expensive and polluting plus it will exhaust eventually. This gives sound rationale to the use of Renewable Energy Resources, which eventually is the future of the world.

 Note: The article has exclusively written for the More Magazine. 

Gwader port: Hope for Pakistan’s Economic and political resuscitation

Industrial revolution of 1700s did not only introduce new Political and Economic dynamics which impaired and eventually replaced old depraved Economic and Political system but it also gave birth to two Political and Economic systems, Capitalism and Communism, which had and continues to have profound impact on world of Politics and Economics.

The developments in economic, political, social and military arena as a result of Industrial revolution paved way for the development of the idea to use economic instrument for political and social objectives.

USSR was the first to use economic tool for the achievement of Political, Social and Economic objectives under the Political-Economic strategy of GOSPLAN, followed by USA, under President Roosevelt, during the Great Depression.

China under new policy, which was well described by Deng Xiaoping “It doesn't matter if a cat is black or white, so long as it catches mice”, in 1980s made paradigm shift from communist political-economic outlook and introduced state controlled capitalism.

The Economic expansion and alteration devised strong and lasting changes in Social, Political and Economic realm of China.

Gwader port, economically and militarily strategically located, holds the key of Pakistan’s Economic-Political resuscitation with its profound effect on Pakistan’s social fabric.

The handing over of Gwader port to China, Industrially and militarily established state, will help in the development of Gwader as an industrial hub with US 10 Billion dollar investment, addressing the issues of educated-job-less class, helping industrial sector, contributing significantly to the collapsing economy. 

Industrial Gwader will also help in watering down the resentment of local Baluch population by offering economic freedom and improved social overhead. The development of such nature will impair prevailing anti-state political notion and eventually pave way for political settlement of Baluchistan issue.

The energy corridor from Gwader port (Arabian Sea) to North-Western China (Xinjiang) will not only feed the energy needs of China but it will also have multiplier effect on Pakistan’s economy by giving birth to infrastructure and Industry from the shores of the Arabian Sea to the extreme North of Pakistan, giving much needed relief to the impaired and stunned economy of Pakistan.

A National Government of Consensus in Afghanistan, backed by USA, Afghan ethnic groups, Pakistan and regional players, can provide Pakistan an access to the Asia Minor and energy hungry state of Russia, giving birth to “Twin energy Corridors”, ensuring strong economy of Pakistan and will help in the establishment of expanded economic ties with the neighbours and beyond.

Gwader as a military port will not only provide second naval base to Pakistan Navy, allaying the naval threat posed by sizable Indian navy, but also with the help of China it will halt the Indian Navy’s  hydro-graphic activities in Indian Ocean.

Gwader as a military port, on the mouth of Strait of Hormuz with Chinese-Pakistani military presence, will further solidify Pakistan’s strategic importance and impair Indian hegemony on Indian Ocean, auxiliary darkening Indian nightmare of Chinese String of Pearls.